Sunday, April 21, 2024 1:17:12 PM - Markets open
VN-INDEX 1,174.85 -18.16/-1.52%
HNX-INDEX 220.80 -5.40/-2.39%
UPCOM-INDEX 87.16 -0.99/-1.12%
VN-Index to trade in range of 1,200-1,250 points at year end
Vietnam News - 10/30/2023 10:26:19 AM
 (0 ratings. You must sign in to rate.)
The Vietnamese stock market has witnessed choppy weeks since the beginning of the fourth quarter. Business results of the third and fourth quarters, as well as economic recovery factors, will be drivers of the market in the last months of the year, according to experts.
 
After growing strongly in the first eight months of the year, the VN-Index has made significant adjustments recently. Before closing the last session above the threshold of 1,060 points, the benchmark even fell close to 1,037 points.
 
It had lost more than 210 points from the peak hit on September 7 at 1,248 points and only increased by 5.32 per cent from the beginning of the year.
 
Some experts believe that market corrections in recent sessions are inevitable and necessary to reevaluate stocks more in line with expectations.
 
Over the past two months, investing at the current time entails lower risk compared to when the VN-Index was above the 1,200 point threshold. Many stocks have been strongly discounted by up to 30-40 per cent compared to the peak.
 
“From the second half of September to the beginning of October, the stock market experienced a significant decline. The VN-Index at times lost more than 10 per cent from its peak, which means many stocks decreased by tens of percentage points, with real estate stocks being particularly affected,” Lê Xuân, a HCM-based independent trader, told Việt Nam News.
 
“The market downturn occurred amid the State Bank's issuance of bonds. This event has raised concerns among market participants about the potential impact of exchange rate factors on limiting the scope of monetary policy easing. Additionally, I think that the long monthly gaining streak and the signs of business recovery that did not meet the expectations of listed companies are contributing to the down risks.”
 
Given the current domestic economic situation, things will get better when export activities really recover, she said.
 
“This is the most feasible area that can create momentum for the overall economic recovery. And naturally, I also expect that this development will serve as a foundation for the price movements of stocks in the stock market.”
 
Meanwhile, Nguyễn Minh Hoàng, director of the Analysis Department at VietFirst Securities, said that business results of the third quarter and expectation of listed enterprises’ performance in the fourth quarter will influence the market’s movements in the last months of the year.
 
Key economic data, such as credit growth, export activities, index of industrial production (IIP), manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), public investments, and tax support will affect the market sentiment.
 
“There is not much room left for monetary policy to support the economy, as the central bank hardly further cut discount rates and refinance rates because VNĐ interest rates are currently lower than US interest rates. As a result, fiscal policies are factors influencing the market,” Hoàng said.
 
Furthermore, the operation plan of the KRX is expected to be implemented soon. The system is anticipated to provide new products, and trading and settlement solutions such as intraday trading (T+0), short selling, shortened settlement periods, and option contracts.
 
The KRX also serves as a precursor to the advancement of the stock market. The State Securities Commission (SSC) has been continuously working with relevant parties to promote and meticulously prepare for the upgrading goal.
 
“I still expect the VN-Index to trade at 1,200-1,250 points at the end of this year”, he said.
 
Lower expectations
 
Given the current developments, many securities have lowered their forecasts for the VN-Index at the end of the year.
 
KB Securities Vietnam JSC recently adjusted its expectation for the benchmark to 1,160 points at the end of 2023, down from the previous projection of 1,240 points at the beginning of the year and in the latest quarterly strategic report.
 
Considering the risk factors from exchange rate pressures and potential interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, MBS Securities has lowered its forecast for the VN-Index in the last months of the year from the range of 1,280-1,340 points previously to 1,260-1,280 points, which corresponds to the price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 13.7 - 14 times.
 
Similarly, Vietcap Securities reduced the VN-Index’s forecast from 1,300 to 1,250 points by the end of 2023. — VNS
 
Read original article here
Newer News
19/04 Market upgrade to begin a new phase of development
16/04 Market plunges, HOSE's value evaporates $10 billion
16/04 VN anticipates market impact as KRX stock trading system launches
10/04 Banks and oil stocks endure a tough day, leaving with market volatility
05/04 Oil stocks see bright prospect amid rising prices
05/04 HoSE's stock market capitalisation in March rises by 3.1% compared to February
03/04 Stocks rebound as cash flow surges into large-cap shares
23/03 Shares sustain gains on strong investor confidence
20/03 Vietnamese securities companies race to boost capital amid high market demand
19/03 Large-caps pressured as increased profit-taking drives share decline
Older News
30/10 Market's recovery momentum remains, but facing supply pressure
23/10 Market likely to continue fluctuating this week
19/10 Transparency crucial to upgrading the stock market
16/10 Seaport stocks anticipate bright outlook in Q4
16/10 Việt Nam eyes emerging stock market status by 2025
13/10 Shares gain slightly amid market volatility
11/10 Domestic investors open nearly 173,000 new securities accounts in September
10/10 Market awaits 3rd quarter business results
10/10 Shares recover but liquidity stays low
03/10 Market extends gains on manufacturing stocks
 
Newsletter Signup
Top Stories
Gold bar auction to be resumed after 11 years of suspension
PM Chính requires strengthened gold market management
Bank shareholders to receive high dividends, stock bonuses
Shares sustain gains on strong investor confidence
Banks given advantages to CASA ratio
Market Update
Last updated at 3:05:02 PM
VN-INDEX 1,174.85 -18.16/-1.52%
Real-time chart
Top 5 Actives
Top 5 Gainers
Top 5 Losers
My Favorite Quotes
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the Get Quotes box on the top of the page.
Company Research
Type in the symbol above for thorough background information, key statistics and financial information.
Stock Sectors
We continuously improve our services, here are the latest updates...
Portfolio
Allow you to monitor a customised group of securities. You can set up multiple Portfolios to help you better manage your investments.
Trigger Alerts
Get up-to-date alerts delivered directly to your email address.
Stock Screener
Allow you to filter the market and find exactly what sort of company you are looking for.
Live Terminal
Get instant access to FREE REAL-TIME streaming quotes for hundreds of stocks from HOSE, HNX and UPCOM exchanges.