The domestic stock market showed a clear divergence in performance last week, noted for a gradual recovery even as overall market indices remained in positive territory.

 

The VN-Index on the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE) closed at 1,654.93 points, while the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) was last traded at 263.13 points.

 

For the week, the former gained 1.19 per cent while the latter fell 1.67 per cent.

 

Liquidity did not increase last week, with the total trading value on HoSE and HNX averaging nearly VNĐ20.3 trillion (US$770.3 million) per session, similar to the previous week.

 

Evaluating this state of low liquidity, many experts believe that the market's strong rise from below 1,600 points, along with many high-profit stocks, has not led to increased liquidity, indicating a cautious flow of capital.

 

The main contributors to the VN-Index's rise were the three Vin stocks: Vingroup (VIC), Vinhomes (VHM) and Vinpearl (VPL), which collectively added approximately four points to the index.

 

Conversely, banking stocks such as Vietcombank (VCB), Techcombank (TCB), BIDV (BID), HDBank (HDB) and LPBank (LPB) experienced notable downward pressure, detracting nearly three points.

 

The trend reflects a rotation of capital flows towards lower-risk sectors amidst continued caution from foreign investors and the overall market sentiment.

 

Throughout the week, foreign investors sold off nearly VNĐ2 trillion across the market, primarily on the southern bourse, while the HNX recorded modest net purchases.

 

Liquidity levels remained below the average of previous weeks, indicating a cautious stance among larger capital sources.

 

Nguyễn Tân Phong, an analyst at Pinetree Securities, said that despite the VN-Index having rebounded for two consecutive weeks after a sharp decline in October, it remains within the sideways range of 1,580-1,680 points without any confirmation of a new trend.

 

Persistently low liquidity suggests that the recovery is viewed with scepticism, he added.

 

Phong emphasised that if trading volumes increase significantly at the beginning of this trading week, yet the VN-Index fails to breach the resistance level of 1,670-1,680 points, the market could potentially retest the 1,580 point range.

 

In its weekly strategy report, MB Securities (MBS) echoed this sentiment, noting that market liquidity had decreased by over 20 per cent compared to the previous week, indicating that capital flows had not yet returned in full force.

 

MBS said that the upward momentum primarily stemmed from stocks benefiting from supportive factors, including sectors like securities, chemicals, construction materials and logistics, while institutional investors continued to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

 

Similarly, Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) indicated a trend of capital shifting toward sectors with particular profit expectations, noting stable demand for real estate, chemicals and construction.

 

The securities firm advised investors to maintain a reasonable allocation in stocks trending upwards and to increase positions only during breakthrough sessions accompanied by improved liquidity.

 

The trading dynamics of the past week illustrate that while the market is on a recovery path, it lacks consensus. Persistently low liquidity, caution among foreign investors and strong sector divergence remain key influencing factors.

 

Investors are recommended to limit chasing purchases and closely monitor the 1,670-1,680 point range for clearer signals regarding market trends, said VCBS. — BIZHUB/VNS

 

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