The domestic real estate sector is poised for a substantial profit increase in 2025, fuelled by a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook and an expected rise in new supply as companies finalise legal procedures for upcoming projects.

 

According to a recent report from SSI Research, the residential real estate market is anticipated to experience robust growth, driven by several favourable factors, which include stability of lending interest rates, the enforcement of the new Land Law and proactive government measures to enhance supply.

 

In Hà Nội, the market outlook appears promising, with a significant inflow of new housing units anticipated.

 

CBRE, the US company in commercial real estate services and investments, forecasts that the number of newly launched apartments in the capital may reach between 40,000 and 45,000 units in 2025, surpassing the projected 30,100 units for 2024.

 

The actual supply in 2024 was 29,700 units, largely due to government support in resolving legal hurdles for various projects.

 

The company also notes that after a 28 per cent increase in primary prices in 2024, prices are expected to stabilise over the next two years, with absorption rates likely lower than those observed between 2016 and 2020.

 

Government initiatives have facilitated the resolution of legal challenges for numerous projects, paving the way for sales launches in 2025. Projects like Wonder Park in Hà Nội and Gems Riverside in HCM City are on track for timely market entry next year.

 

New developments such as Phước Vĩnh Tây in Long An Project and the Gold Tower project in Hà Nội, which received investment licences between 2023 and 2024, are also set to contribute to market supply.

 

SSI Research predicts a significant increase in sales activity nationwide due to both new and ongoing projects.

 

Notably, Vinhomes plans to launch new projects, including Phước Vĩnh Tây in Long An Province and Dương Kinh in Hải Phòng City. Khang Điền House is expected to debut the Foresta project, featuring a mix of low-rise and high-rise units.

 

While Vinhomes achieved an impressive 48 per cent sales growth in 2024, its sales growth is projected to moderate to around 8.1 per cent in 2025.

 

In contrast, other listed developers like Khang Điền House, Nam Long Group and Đất Xanh Group are expected to register double-digit sales growth in 2025, significantly boosting profits as projects reach delivery stages.

 

For 2025, SSI Research estimates that Vinhomes’s revenue and profit after tax attributed to the parent company will reach VNĐ102.5 trillion (US$4 billion) and VNĐ34.2 trillion, respectively, reflecting a mild increase and slight decrease.

 

Khang Điền House, which did not launch new projects in 2024, is poised to benefit from the Foresta project's launch in early 2025.

 

The expected revenue from this project alongside remaining units from the Privia will likely lead to an increase in revenue and profit after tax to the parent company of 72 per cent and 22 per cent.

 

Nam Long Group’s profit growth in 2025 is anticipated to be bolstered by enhanced sales activities in Long An Province and Cần Thơ City, with ongoing legal progress at the Izumi City project in Biên Hoà City. Based on these developments, revenue and profit after tax estimates for the developer are projected at VNĐ5.5 trillion and VNĐ627 billion, respectively.

 

Đất Xanh Group is also expected to capitalise on the low supply of new apartments in HCM City, launching the Gems Riverside project in early 2025. However, the group will rely on revenues from the Gems Skyworld project, which is anticipated to be re-launched in the latter half of 2025.

 

Given the promising significant growth in 2025, SSI Research recommends increasing exposure to the sector, highlighting promising stocks such as Vinhomes, Nam Long Group and Khang Điền House. — BIZHUB/VNS

 

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