The US dollar on the unofficial market has depreciated significantly against the Vietnamese đồng in recent days and is forecast to continue declining as domestic pressure on the USD/VNĐ exchange rate eases.

 

Since the beginning of December, the dollar on the unofficial market has fallen by more than VNĐ700 per dollar. Compared to its peak of VNĐ28,000 in mid-November, the rate decreased by more than VNĐ900, or 2.5 percentage points.

 

Meanwhile, the central exchange rate between the đồng and the dollar set by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has decreased by about 0.3 percentage point from its peak, narrowing the year-to-date gain to approximately 3.5 per cent.

 

On Wednesday, the dollar on the unofficial market continued to decline, trading at around VNĐ26,900 for buying and VNĐ26,950 for selling, down VNĐ273 and VNĐ382 respectively compared to the previous session.

 

Meanwhile, the SBV on the day announced the central exchange rate between the đồng and the dollar at VNĐ25,146 per dollar, up VNĐ5 compared to the previous session. With a daily trading band for the dollar against the đồng of 5 per cent around the SBV’s central reference rate, commercial banks are currently allowed to trade the dollar within the range of VNĐ23,889–26,403.

 

The dollar listed at commercial banks on Wednesday also increased according to the SBV's rate. Specifically, at Vietcombank, the USD buying and selling rates were listed at VNĐ26,123 and VNĐ26,403 per dollar, up VNĐ5 compared to the previous session.

 

Pressure on the USD/VNĐ exchange rate has reduced amid the continued low level of the dollar on the international market. The US dollar index (DXY) was trading at around 98.29, its lowest level in about two months.

 

The dollar on the international market has weakened after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year by another 0.25 percentage points at last week’s policy meeting. Currently, the US benchmark interest rate stands at around 3.5–3.75 per cent, the lowest level since November 2022.

 

Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Financial Group, said the trade-weighted dollar fell 7 per cent from its January peak and is expected to soften another 2–3 per cent in 2026 as the Fed eases further by another 75 basis points.

 

According to experts at MB Securities Company, with forecasts of a weakening US dollar, the supply of dollars in the country will be more abundant towards the end of the year thanks to strong exports and remittances, helping to reduce exchange rate pressure.

 

Experts at Maybank Securities Company also believe that further interest rate cuts by the Fed and continued loose monetary policy will help narrow the USD–VNĐ interest rate gap, reducing pressure on the USD/VNĐ exchange rate and creating favourable conditions for the SBV to consolidate foreign exchange reserves, giving it more room to manage interest rates. — BIZHUB/VNS

 

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