Foreign investors have been consistently selling Vinamilk's (VNM) shares since the beginning of March, resulting in a cumulative net selling value of over VNĐ2.5 trillion (US$101 million) this year.

This makes Vinamilk the most heavily sold stock on the market.

This trend of net selling by foreign investors has persisted for five consecutive months and shows no signs of changing.

Looking back further to the beginning of 2023, the only notable period of net buying by foreign investors was in the third quarter of that year. During that time, Vinamilk's stock, as a leading player in the dairy industry, experienced a strong recovery, reaching its highest level in two years. However, for the rest of the period, the dominant trend has been net selling.

Since the start of 2024, Vinamilk's stock has only seen a modest increase of 4 per cent, while the overall VN-Index has risen by nearly 12 per cent.

With the current market price, Vinamilk's market capitalisation is estimated to be around VNĐ147 trillion (approximately $6 billion), causing it to fall out of the top 10 stocks with the highest market value on the stock exchange. This figure is significantly lower compared to its peak in early 2018 when Vinamilk held the position of the most valuable company in the market with a market capitalisation of over $10 billion.

BIDV Securities Company (BSC) is optimistic about successfully upgrading the market classification in 2025, which is expected to play a crucial role in improving cash flow for stocks with large market capitalisation like Vinamilk.

The company is currently undergoing a corporate restructuring, and there are signs of improvement in 2023, as Vinamilk's net profit has returned to positive growth after two years of declines. Although the growth rate was modest at just over 5 per cent, it is still a noteworthy achievement considering the efforts made by Vinamilk to restructure its business.

The company implemented a brand identity transformation strategy to cater to the evolving demands of the new generation of consumers, expand its customer base across different age groups, and enhance its presence in global markets.

The brand innovation in 2023 led to a 2.8 per cent market share recovery in the liquid milk segment, and Vinamilk's overall market share has also been restored over the past two quarters. Vinamilk plans to focus on developing mid-range and plant-based products, as well as strengthening the powdered milk segment to consolidate its market share.

Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Joint Stock Company anticipates an improvement in Vinamilk's domestic revenue in 2024, driven by the recovery of domestic consumption.

Vinamilk is also actively engaging in trade promotion activities and exploring new market opportunities in regions such as South America, the Caribbean, West Africa, and Southern Africa. Mirae Asset believes that export revenue will be a key driver for Vinamilk's future growth in overseas markets.

While there are positive prospects for Vinamilk's growth in 2024, BIDV Securities Co also highlights potential risks, including the possibility of losing market share due to competitive pressures and increased input material prices, which could narrow profit margins. — VNS

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