Việt Nam’s economic growth is likely to rebound in 2024 and 2025, according to Dorsati Madani, Senior Economist at the World Bank (WB).

 

 

Madani noted that Việt Nam's major trading partners, including the US, Europe, and China, have all experienced negative impacts in recent times due to global instabilities and reduced demand.

 

Low demand has dampened Việt Nam's economic momentum, leading to a decrease in economic growth. The import and export turnover has declined, impacting industrial production value.

 

Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM)'s General Research Department Nguyễn Ánh Dương said to achieve robust economic growth, Việt Nam needed to do its utmost from various perspectives, including reform, policy management, and maintaining a stable and favourable economic environment for investors.

 

"Maintaining macro-economic stability serves as the foundation, but it's still important to create a favourable environment and improve capital absorption capacity," Dương stressed.

 

Dương put forth three growth scenarios for Việt Nam in 2023.

 

In the first scenario, Việt Nam’s GDP is predicted to expand by 5.34 per cent in 2023, with exports for the whole year decreasing by 5.64 per cent and the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 3.43 per cent. The country is expected to enjoy a trade surplus of US$9.1 billion.

 

In the second one, CIEM expects the country's GDP will rise by 5.72 per cent, with the export turnover decreasing by 3.66 per cent, and the average CPI increasing by 3.87 per cent. The trade balance will reach a surplus of approximately $10.3 billion.

 

The third scenario forecasts a more positive global economic context with improvements in growth recovery and credit and public investment disbursement, business environment and labour productivity; a significant reduction in supply chain disruptions, decreased inflation in the US, more favourable weather conditions, and Việt Nam’s determined reforms and effective management.

 

CIEM expects the country’s GDP growth to surge by 6.46 per cent in 2023. Accordingly, full-year exports will decrease by only 2.17 per cent, while the average CPI increasing by 4.39 per cent. The country will enjoy a trade surplus of around $6.8 billion. — VNS