StanChart forecasts GDP growth at 6.6%

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StanChart forecasts GDP growth at 6.6%

Saigon Times - 1/17/2017 8:36:45 AM

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Standard Chartered has forecast Vietnam’s GDP will expand 6.6% in 2017 due to the impact of natural disasters. The strong rise of manufacturing and construction will continue to be the main growth driver this year.

The forecast was given at the Global Research Briefing 2017 held by Standard Chartered in HCMC last Friday. The event was attended by representatives from more than 100 domestic and foreign enterprises.

This annual event showcased the global research report recently published by Standard Chartered, titled “Welcome to the jungle”.

According to the report, a veritable jungle of risks and opportunities is lurking ahead. The global GDP growth is projected to be 1.5%, the same as in 2016, with the emerging markets as the main growth impetus.

Marios Maratheftis, chief economist at Standard Chartered, said: “2017 promises to be a year full of excitement and also uncertainties. The potential recovery of the U.S. economy is heightening optimism in the market, but we believe this is done in an excessive way, as tightened financial conditions will affect growth before the fiscal stimulus works. Tightened conditions will also increase the risks, leading to the revaluation of risks in many emerging markets.”

However, Standard Chartered remains optimistic about the economic prospects of Vietnam and that Vietnam’s economy is back in the orbit following the strike of the drought.

Nirukt Sapru, CEO of Standard Chartered Vietnam, said: “Most macroeconomic indicators of Vietnam have recently improved, generating much positive progress in maintaining stability. We believe Vietnam will continue to be an attractive destination for investors.”

Narayanan Chidu, an economist in charge of Asia at Standard Chartered, said: “We anticipate foreign direct investment into Vietnam will probably slow down a little bit in 2017 but remain at a high level, about US$10 billion. Participation in the regional trade agreements has brought Vietnam many benefits, including the attraction of a large volume of foreign investment.

“We believe the negative impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) not being ratified (if this is the case) on Vietnam would be the lowest, as foreign direct investment into Vietnam to wait in front for the TPP has been very strong over the past time.”

Some highlights of Vietnam in 2017 according to Standard Chartered global research include:

- GDP growth: 6.6%

- Foreign direct investment into Vietnam: about US$10 billion

- Export will rise slightly due to weak demand of markets like Europe and the U.S

- Inﬂ ation will go up, reaching an average of 4.3%

- Policy rates will remain unchanged while the exchange rate will undergo mild adjustments

- Vietnam dong will face pressure in the medium and long terms

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