The survey of over 70 economists suggests U.S.
gross domestic product will grow at a 2.6 percent annualized rate
between January and March, less than half the pace of the fourth
quarter of 2009, when it expanded at a 5.9 percent rate.
For
all of 2009, the world's biggest economy contracted by 2.4 percent, but
the poll predicts it will grow by 2.9 percent in 2010 on an annual
basis.
With
steady but subdued growth, economists expected the core consumer price
index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, to grow 1.4
percent in the first quarter of the year and to average 1.3 percent
over the course of 2010 before edging up to 1.6 percent in 2011.
That
suggests the Federal Reserve won't need to raise its benchmark federal
funds rate, its main monetary policy tool, until the final three months
of the year, a quarter later than predicted in last month's poll.
The
Fed funds rate is currently set in a range of zero to 0.25 percent, and
the median forecast from respondents see a rise to 0.75 percent between
October and December.
"Low
inflation is the key to the outlook," said Ethan Harris, head of North
America economics at Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch.
"It allows the Fed to focus exclusively on
growth and keep both feet planted firmly on the accelerator." The Fed
has started to unwind some of the emergency measures it adopted during
the worst days of the financial crisis.
Last
month, it raised the discount rate at which banks can access emergency
loans. But officials have said that broader borrowing costs would
remain low for an extended period.
After hitting 0.75 percent by year end, economists expect rates to rise relatively slowly, reaching 1.5 percent by mid-2011.
Headline
inflation, including food and energy costs, is likely to rise at a 2.5
percent rate in the first quarter and a 2.1 percent rate for the whole
of 2010, the survey showed.