Economists surveyed earlier this month in the
Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter said the economy is expected to
grow by 3.0 percent in 2011, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than
estimates made a month ago.
But economists raised their 2010 growth forecast for
the third consecutive month to 3.1 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from
February.
Still,
the economists predicted the recovery would be mild given the depth of
the recession.
The
consensus also expects inventories to continue adding to GDP over the
next several quarters but see the size of those contributions become
increasingly smaller.
"By
Q1 2011, the contribution to GDP from business inventories is expected
to become trivial," the survey said.
The panelists said they also expect "a slower
and less powerful than is typical improvement in labor market conditions
that will cap gains in disposable personal income and personal
consumption expenditures."
The panelists expressed concern that severe winter
weather crimped economic activity in February and that upcoming monthly
data on production, retail sales, housing starts and home sales could
fall short of earlier consensus expectations.
However, they also
pointed out any weather-induced softness should be recovered in the
March data.